| Abstract | National Forests in the dry forest provinces on the east‐side of the Oregon and Washington
Cascades have been managed under the guidelines of local Forest Plans and the Northwest
Forest Plan (NWFP), both of which specify large areas of late‐successional reserves (LSRs). In
contrast, the recently‐released USDI Fish and Wildlife Service Revised Recovery Plan (RRP) for
the Northern Spotted Owl (NSO) calls for development of dynamic and shifting mosaics in the
dry forests, and retention of LSRs in moist forests of eastern Cascades of Oregon and
Washington, to address NSO habitat and wildfire concerns. Our objectives in this study were to
develop and evaluate key management approaches intended to reduce fire risk and conserve NSO
habitat and to assess the relative merit of alternative management strategies in fire‐prone stands
and landscapes. We first sought to determine the current area and successional status of eastern
Cascade forests in Oregon and Washington. Next, we simulated succession, wildfire, and fuel
treatments using a state‐and‐transition model, LADS. Finally, we translated forest cover types into
three levels of NSO habitat suitability (poor, moderate, and good) and applied an NSO population
simulation model to investigate response of the NSO to vegetation trajectories over a 100‐yr time
series. To do so, we developed a spatially explicit, individual‐based population model using
HexSim software that integrated habitat maps with information on spotted owl population
dynamics. We then compared the outcomes of several landscape management scenarios: no
restoration management, restoration management under the Northwest Forest Plan reserve
network, and two whole‐landscape scenarios representing alternatives to current reserve
allocations. All of our simulations assumed a wildfire regime going forward that reflects the regime
variability experienced over the most recent 15 years of fire history, including the potential for
large, rare fire events. We conducted our analysis in two study areas that encompassed the range
of the northern spotted owl within the Okanogan‐Wenatchee National Forest, Washington, and
Deschutes National Forest, Oregon.
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